Nonlinear stochastic modeling as a background for the bursty behavior in financial markets

نویسندگان

  • Vygintas Gontis
  • Aleksejus Kononovicius
  • Stefan Reimann
چکیده

We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time statistics. Using these results we derive PDF of burst duration for the proposed model. We confirm analytical expressions by numerical evaluation and discuss bursty behavior of return in financial markets in the framework of modeling by nonlinear SDE.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Simulation of Long-term Returns with Stochastic Correlations

This paper focuses on a nonlinear stochastic model for financial simulation and forecasting based on assumptions of multivariate stochastic correlation, with an application to the European market. We present in particular the key elements of a structured hierarchical econometric model that can be used to forecast financial and commodity markets relying on statistical and simulation methods. The...

متن کامل

Modeling Stock Return Volatility Using Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear State Space Models: Case of Tehran Stock Market

Volatility is a measure of uncertainty that plays a central role in financial theory, risk management, and pricing authority. Turbulence is the conditional variance of changes in asset prices that is not directly observable and is considered a hidden variable that is indirectly calculated using some approximations. To do this, two general approaches are presented in the literature of financial ...

متن کامل

Modeling and prediction of time-series of monthly copper prices

One of the main tasks to analyze and design a mining system is predicting the behavior exhibited by prices in the future. In this paper, the applications of different prediction methods are evaluated in econometrics and financial management fields, such as ARIMA, TGARCH, and stochastic differential equations, for the time-series of monthly copper prices. Moreover, the performance of these metho...

متن کامل

Day-ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by a New Hybrid Forecast Method

Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. Accordingly, in this paper a new strategy is proposed for electricity price forecast. The forecast strategy includes Wavelet Transform (WT...

متن کامل

Modeling the Dependency Structure between Stocks of Chemical Products Return, Oil Price and Exchange Rate Growth in Iran; an Application of Vine Copula

The main objective of this study is modeling the dependency structure between the returns of oil markets, exchange rate and stocks of chemical products in Iran. For this purpose, the theory of Vine Copula functions is used to investigate the dependency structure. In addition to consider a linear relationship between financial markets in Iran, the nonlinear dependency structure of these markets ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2012